However, the biggest concern remains the ever present threat of insurgency. Some of the world’s poorest people live in West Africa and thee are many disaffected citizens demanding regime change.ĮCOWAS needs to be seen to act decisively to quell any other military takeover attempts. Niger possesses significant natural resources, with uranium being its most notable asset.Īfter five coups, ECOWAS heads of state want to prevent a contagion effect in their own countries.

The country is a critical battleground in the fight against terrorism and a focus for regional and international security efforts. It is the largest country in West Africa and a vital gateway between the Sahel and the rest of the continent. The bloc has also deployed peacekeeping forces, mainly from Nigeria to war zones such as Sierra Leone and Liberia.īut this is the first time it has threatened to intervene in a coup – there was no such response after coups in neighboring Mali or Burkina Faso.

This event has raised the question of whether similar tactics would be successful in the current situation in Niger. The last notable instance was in 2017, when ECOWAS deployed military forces in Gambia to remove President Jammeh who did not want to give up power after elections.Ī show of force at the border compelled Jammeh to step down, leading to a swift resolution. With US and French troops based in the country, there are fears of a potential proxy war unfolding. However, Russian mercenaries Wagner are known to operate in Mali and their leader has already offered help to Niger. Mali however has considerably reduced military capacity after expelling the French military and asking UN soldiers to leave the country after a 10-year peacekeeping mission.Įxperts say Mali and Burkina Faso have limited capacity to send a significant number of troops to Niger. Niger’s new military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani has also asked Mali for support. Mali and Burkina Faso, led by soldiers who seized power forcefully, have stated that any military intervention would be seen as a declaration of war. There are fears that a region plagued with insurgency from fearsome terror groups such as al Qaeda, ISIS and Boko Haram could be plunged into an all out war that further destabilizes the region.

They will lose out and Bazoum too, and someone neutral could come in to run a transitional government,” Adetayo said. They may have to compromise by getting the junta to leave power but they will not hand over to Bazoum.

“They want power returned to Bazoum but likely that may not be a feasible outcome. “To my own understanding, Nigeria is not going to back down and will do whatever it takes to return Niger to civilian rule,” he added. Oluseyi Adetayo, an security and intelligence expert, told CNN: “Preparation is already in top gear, there’s no doubt about that and the military are on standby. Senegal, a key player in the region, has also pledged troops while Niger’s former colonial power France said it supported ECOWAS’s position.Īfter a meeting of ECOWAS this week, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah called any military option the “last resort” but added that “all elements that would go into any eventual intervention have been worked out here and are being refined.” Local media outlets reported Friday that Tinubu had written to inform lawmakers in Nigeria, as he is legally required to do, of the ECOWAS intention to intervene militarily in Niger if the coup leaders “remain recalcitrant.” There is no shortage of tough talking rhetoric though.

Tinubu, however, has no military experience. It will be the first crisis of his short leadership tenure at the ECOWAS and of his country. The new chairman is Nigeria’s new President Bola Tinubu, who analysts say will be keen to make a mark and show that he is not a pushover. The whereabouts of Bazoum are unclear, in an op-ed for The Washington Post he described himself as a “hostage.”ĮCOWAS has shown a willingness to take action in cases where leaders refuse to relinquish power or when political crises escalate. The head of the guard, Abdourahamane Tiani, has been named as the new leader. The coup was launched in late July when Bazoum was seized by members of the presidential guard, before national institutions were shut down and protesters from both sides took to the streets. But there were signs that Niger’s military leadership believed they had a lack of government support to fight militants and that a coup could change that campaign.

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